Scrum velocity: how predictable is your team?

What does velocity mean in Scrum?

Scrum velocity indicates how much work (in story points or another unit of estimation) a team can complete on average in one sprint. It's a metric you can use to predict progress, provided you track it consistently and realistically. Velocity isn't about speed in the literal sense, but about the amount of value the team consistently delivers.

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How do you calculate velocity correctly?

Calculating velocity is simple: at the end of each sprint, sum the story points of all 'Done' user stories. Averaged over several sprints, this reveals a trend: your velocity. So:

Velocity=Total number of "Done" story points over number of sprintsNumber of sprints.\text{Velocity} = \frac{\text{Total number of "Done" story points over number of sprints}}{\text{Number of sprints}}.

Important: only fully completed items count. If a story is not yet 'Done', do not partially include it in the calculation.

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Using velocity for planning and predictability

By knowing the average velocity, a team can reasonably estimate how many story points they can take on in the next sprint. It also helps predict approximately how many sprints will be needed to complete a larger project or a specific part of the backlog. This gives stakeholders an indication of the delivery time, increasing predictability.

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Practical tips to increase your velocity

• Improve your refinement: If stories are too large or unclear, you lose time and focus.
• Maintain a clear Definition of Done: Working with a clear DoD prevents partially completed stories.
• Create a stable team: If the team has low turnover and works well together, productivity increases.

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Pitfalls of velocity (what to watch out for)

• Misuse as a performance target: Velocity is a tool, not a KPI in itself. Too much focus on 'more story points' can lead to point inflation.
• Not accounting for context changes: Busy periods, holidays, or a new team member affect velocity.
• Every team is different: Velocity says nothing about teams relative to each other. It is only relevant for this team in this setting.

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Examples of how teams use (or misuse) velocity

• Positive use: A team notices their velocity consistently hovers around 30 points. They then consciously plan ~30 points per sprint, leading to consistent deliveries.
• Misuse: Managers want to see velocity increase by 10% each sprint, causing the team to give higher estimates or make suboptimal choices.

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Conclusion

Velocity offers value when viewed as a guide for planning and predictability. It is not an absolute measure of how 'good' or 'fast' a team is, but an internal reference point that helps create realistic plans and manage expectations. Use velocity wisely, ensure a stable team, and be aware of the context in which you estimate and deliver stories.

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